Lecturer at Johns Hopkins University and conflict management expert Edward P. Joseph has stated that debates over the European Union’s “strategic autonomy” are not directly linked to Western policy toward Serbia.
According to him, recent developments indicate a long-delayed toughening of the European Union’s stance toward Belgrade. Joseph highlighted that public criticism by Marta Kos regarding judicial laws in Serbia is a clear signal of this shift. He added that Brussels is also seriously considering suspending a significant portion of funding allocated to Serbia.
At the same time, Joseph notes that Washington is also no longer showing tolerance toward the policies of President Aleksandar Vučić.
“In parallel, the Trump administration does not appear interested in Vučić’s political maneuvering,” he said.
He further emphasized that the U.S. administration has surprised Belgrade with a firm stance on removing Russian influence from NIS, Serbia’s main energy company. According to him, there are expectations that political developments in Hungary—including recent elections—could accelerate the potential sale of NIS to the Hungarian company MOL Group.
Joseph added that Russia and its key allies in Serbia are unlikely to welcome the weakening of Viktor Orbán and his party Fidesz, given Orbán’s role as a supportive figure for their interests within the EU.
“The loss of Fidesz in Hungary could finally encourage the EU to hold Belgrade and President Vučić accountable for reforms, internal repression, and destabilizing policies toward neighboring countries,” Joseph concluded.
