The prospect of further enlargement of the European Union is once again facing delays, as internal disagreements and political sensitivities among member states slow down the process, according to recent reports.
An informal EU meeting scheduled for April 23–24 in Cyprus was initially expected to address enlargement. However, sources indicate that the topic is now unlikely to be discussed.
The vision of accelerated, geopolitically driven expansion promoted by Ursula von der Leyen is encountering resistance within the bloc. Concerns include the potential impact of cheaper labor from new member states and the risk of domestic political backlash.
France is reportedly among the most cautious, as its laws require a national referendum for the admission of new members. Such a vote could strengthen far-right and populist movements, creating additional political risk for leaders like Emmanuel Macron.
At the same time, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy insist that enlargement must strictly follow a merit-based approach, rejecting any acceleration driven by geopolitical considerations.
Analysts suggest that Montenegro remains the most likely candidate to advance toward membership in the near term, as it is currently the most advanced in negotiations. However, even its path is uncertain due to growing skepticism among EU members.
Some experts point to broader structural issues, including unresolved regional disputes and fears of so-called “Trojan horse” states—countries that could join the EU but later obstruct decision-making or diverge from core policies, reflecting concerns raised by past experiences with members like Hungary.
Despite the current slowdown, analysts believe the enlargement debate could regain momentum later in 2026. A potential factor is Iceland, which is expected to hold a referendum on August 29 on whether to restart EU accession talks. A positive outcome could reshape the dynamics of enlargement.
For now, however, enlargement remains politically sensitive, with many EU leaders reluctant to open the debate amid domestic pressures and shifting geopolitical priorities.
