As the United States heads into the November 3 midterm elections, attention is focused on the battle between Democrats and Republicans for control of Congress.
In an analysis for CNN, journalist Aaron Blake identifies five factors that could help Democrats perform strongly in the elections. However, he cautions that despite high expectations for the party, the outcome remains uncertain.
According to CNN, President Donald Trump is facing historically low approval ratings ahead of the midterms. Blake argues that Republicans could struggle when the number of Americans who view the president negatively is nearly twice as large as the number who view him positively.
This could weigh on Republican candidates, even though the electoral map for the Senate is considered more favorable to the party.
1. Eroding support for Trump among key voter groups
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump made significant gains among younger voters, particularly men, Latino voters and people who do not regularly participate in elections.
However, polls cited by CNN suggest that attitudes toward Trump have shifted among all three groups.
The analysis also points to trade tariffs and the war with Iran as factors that appear to have weakened his support among white voters without college degrees, a group that has traditionally been an important part of his electoral base.
2. Dissatisfaction over the cost of living
The economy and rising prices are another major factor that could shape voters’ decisions.
CNN notes that Trump returned to the White House partly on the strength of public frustration with high inflation under President Joe Biden and his promises to address the problem quickly.
However, the analysis argues that some of Trump’s policies have worsened economic pressures. It also recalls that Trump dismissed concerns about affordability as a “hoax” and claimed that he had already solved the problem — a claim CNN describes as false.
3. A gap between campaign promises and governing
Another issue highlighted by CNN is the perceived gap between Trump’s campaign commitments and his actions during his second term.
According to the analysis, Trump promised not to start new wars but later became involved in military action against Iran. He also pledged to bring inflation under control, while economic pressures have remained a concern.
The issue has also been raised by podcaster Joe Rogan, who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
4. The impact of the war with Iran and trade tariffs
The conflict with Iran and Trump’s trade policies could have consequences beyond foreign policy, affecting voters’ views of his leadership and economic management.
CNN’s analysis suggests that these issues may have contributed to declining support among groups that helped secure Trump’s victory in 2024.
5. Growing concerns about corruption
The fifth factor identified by Blake is public concern about corruption, which he says could become a greater political liability for Republicans than for Democrats.
CNN links these concerns to reports about Trump’s personal financial gains and allegations that some members of his administration have used their official positions for economic benefit.
Taken together, the five factors could create a difficult political environment for Republicans as voters prepare to decide the balance of power in Congress.
Nevertheless, the outcome will also depend on individual races, turnout and the differing electoral dynamics in House and Senate contests. CNN’s analysis emphasizes that the factors pointing toward Democratic gains do not guarantee a particular result.
