Serbia’s long-standing strategy of balancing relations with the European Union, the United States, Russia, and China is facing a serious crisis, according to German and Swiss media. The war in Ukraine, international sanctions, and energy pressures are forcing Belgrade to make clear geopolitical choices.
The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) notes that Serbia’s “Four Pillars Doctrine,” developed after Kosovo declared independence in 2008, allowed Belgrade nearly two decades of considerable diplomatic maneuvering.
“Three of the four pillars of Serbian foreign policy have been shaken at the same time,” NZZ writes, coinciding with a weakening of President Aleksandar Vučić’s thirteen-year rule amid student protests, growing civic movements, and a stronger civil society.
Key Challenges for Serbia
- United States: Vučić’s hopes for improved relations under Donald Trump did not materialize. The Trump administration upheld sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil industry, demanding its sale.
- Russia: Serbia’s indirect military support for Ukraine angered Moscow, which is now using gas dependence as leverage, delaying a new supply contract.
- European Union: Accession talks have stagnated since 2021 due to deterioration in rule of law and media freedom.
“Serbia is not Yugoslavia and Vučić is not Tito,” NZZ stresses, emphasizing that Serbia is too small to act as a middle power amid increasing confrontation between Russia and the West.
Energy Sector Pressures
Berliner Zeitung reports that the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued a temporary license for Serbia’s Oil Industry (NIS), allowing production to resume. Washington’s goal is to remove Russian capital from Serbia’s energy sector, with the next three weeks being decisive. Failure could trigger a new energy crisis with major political and economic consequences.
Conclusion
According to German and Swiss media, Serbia can no longer sustain its traditional balancing strategy. A strategic choice is now unavoidable, further undermining Vučić’s already weakened authority.
