Analysts suggest that Russia has recently suffered a rare net territorial loss in Ukraine, marking the first such reversal since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.
Although the amount of territory involved remains relatively small, Ukraine has reportedly managed to reclaim more land than Russia has taken, even as Moscow continues to occupy nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory.
The situation is seen as a challenge for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly claimed that Russian victory is inevitable and that its forces will eventually secure control over key regions, including Donbas.
Despite slow and costly Russian advances since the 2022 full-scale invasion, these developments are increasingly seen as undermining Moscow’s narrative of steady progress. Analysts argue that this narrative has also influenced international perceptions and, at times, even Western political debates about the war.
Military officials in Kyiv, including Ukraine’s Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, claim that recent months have been particularly successful for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. Ukrainian sources report tens of thousands of Russian casualties in recent months, while Western intelligence estimates suggest Russian losses remain extremely high, potentially reaching 30,000 to 35,000 personnel per month.
Experts cited by CNN argue that Moscow’s broader strategy has relied not only on military pressure but also on shaping global perception of the war, attempting to convince Western countries that continued support for Ukraine is futile. However, recent battlefield trends are increasingly challenging that narrative.
