Albania has experienced a population decline of 40% over the past three and a half decades of transition, according to the 2025–2026 Transition Report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), titled “An Older, Bolder World.”
The report highlights emigration as a major concern, with no sign of slowing down.
“In most post-communist economies, low fertility and high net emigration have been the main drivers of population decline. In Albania, which benefited from a growing working-age population until 2023, the cost of aging is estimated at 0.28 percentage points, translating into a decline of 0.53 percentage points compared to the average demographic dividend achieved during 2000–2023,” the report states.
The demographic gap is already having a noticeable economic impact. For the period 2024–2050, the report predicts an annual negative effect of –0.3 to –0.4 percentage points, making Albania one of the most exposed economies in the EBRD region. Even in the 2050–2100 horizon, the outlook remains negative, indicating that population aging and shrinking labor force will continue to affect the economy for decades to come.
The country faces ongoing pressures from a shrinking workforce, a growing elderly population, and weakening social security contributions.
“Without increases in productivity, technological investment, human capital, and improvements in the business environment, mass emigration will continue to slow economic growth for at least the next three decades,” the report warns.
EBRD calculations show that roughly 23% of Albania’s educated population has already emigrated.
